The Playoff Picture :: Week 26

With roughly five weeks left in the MLS season, it’s time to look at the playoff picture.  This weekend’s games shook up the playoff chase a little, but most of the teams are set.  It’ll take some strong performances by the bubble teams to make into the second season.  Here’s how things look.

IN: Columbus Crew, Chicago Fire, Houston Dynamo, LA Galaxy

Unless there’s a historic collapse, all four of the current leaders look to be set in their spots.  Columbus may have locked up the Supporters’ Shield with its win over Houston, but there’s a chance they could slide because of their time in the CONCACAF Champions League.  Houston also has to deal with schedule congestion due to the CCL, but they’ve shown in the past that they have the depth to weather the storm.

PROBABLY: Seattle Sounders FC, Chivas USA, Colorado Rapids, New England Revolution

If form holds, and given how the season’s gone, I expect it to, we’re going to see five teams from the West this year.  New England, despite being behind on points, has a few games in hand to make up the difference.  There’s no reason to believe they won’t pass DC United and Toronto.  Seattle’s win over DC proved that they have to goods to go the distance against the good teams in MLS.  Chivas is still riding their strong start to the season, and it should be enough to get them in the door.  Colorado is the surprise of this group.  They’ve been inconsistent all season, but have put together enough points to all but lock up a spot.

THERE’S HOPE: Toronto FC, Real Salt Lake, DC United

Toronto and RSL have the best chances of making the cut, but both face uphill battles.  If Colorado fails to get through, look for Toronto to take their place.  Real Salt Lake, like Colorado, has struggled to stay consistent.  With only two games left at home, RSL faces a rough road.  Interestingly enough, their final game is against Colorado.  The final match of the 2009 Rocky Mountain Cup could decide who makes the playoffs and who doesn’t.  DC United is all but dead in the water.  Their time in the CCL is going to place a major strain on the depth of an injury depleted squad.  The most storied franchise in MLS will probably miss the playoffs for the second year in a row.

DONE, NOT A CHANCE:  Kansas City Wizards, Red Bull New York, FC Dallas, San Jose Earthquakes

Kansas City and FC Dallas have a hypothetical chance, but it would require a massive collapse of way too many teams for the playoffs to be a serious possibility.  Red Bull New York has been dead in the water seemingly since week 1′s drubbing against the Sounders.  San Jose is still trying to find its identity as a recent “expansion” team.  Like Cub fans say every year, for these teams “maybe next year.”